What's so super about Tuesday? 419 GOP delegates

WASHINGTON (AP) — Super? Maybe not this time. But it is a Tuesday, one with the biggest payout of the Republican presidential primaries.

Super Tuesday, slimmed down to half its 2008 size but still doling out one-third of the delegates needed to win, probably won't settle much.

Sure, it could nudge Newt Gingrich out of the race, or lend Ron Paul more credibility. But it won't be easy for either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum to score a decisive advantage, because delegates are handed out by share. A close second in a state can pay off almost as well as first place.

Win some big states, especially Ohio, and the symbolism is powerful, of course.

Romney might cement the front-runner status that keeps slipping through his fingers. Santorum could prove he's the real thing.

What's at stake, what's it mean and what might happen? A Super Tuesday tip sheet:

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Delegates for grabs Tuesday: 419.

Delegates already won: 353. Romney, 203; Santorum, 92; Gingrich, 33; Paul, 25.

Delegates needed for the nomination: 1,144.

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Super Tuesday is super expensive:

A week's worth of heavy advertising in all 10 states would cost a candidate about $5 million.

That's a lot even for Romney's well-financed campaign, prompting him to make a plea for donations amid his Michigan victory speech. Gingrich is getting another multimillion-dollar boost from Las Vegas billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who donated the money to a special type of political action committee, known as a super PAC, that will run advertising in key states.

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Ohio, Ohio, Ohio:

It's the race to watch. Political junkies get all misty-eyed over this Rust Belt swing state, and not just because of the 63 delegates.

No Republican nominee has ever become president without winning the state. That makes it a powerful proving ground for the men trying to show they can take on President Barack Obama.

It's home to Joe the Plumber and tens of thousands of auto workers, but Ohio's not all blue-collar. It's also the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, high-tech science, medical and energy workers, suburbanites, soybean farmers and a quarter-million dairy cows (OK, the cows can't vote). The big issue is the economy, including Obama's bailout of the auto industry.

Santorum and Romney are duking it out in Ohio. Look for the outcome to generate more buzz than any other Super Tuesday contest.

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Newt's last stand or Gingrich rises again?

Get out the hook for Newt Gingrich if he loses in Georgia, the state he represented in the U.S. House for two decades.

Gingrich hopes to win decisively here and pick up enough other delegates to relaunch his up-and-down campaign, which has been mostly down-and-out since he lost Florida in January. He's got endorsements from Gov. Nathan Deal and Herman Cain, a fellow Georgian. He's got a new pitch, claiming he can bring the cost of gas down to $2.50 per gallon.

Santorum is pushing hard to wrest the state's Christian conservative and tea party voters away from Gingrich. Romney remains a force, even if the state is outside his comfort zone. Georgia boasts the day's biggest cache of delegates: 76.

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Elsewhere in the South:

Two other Bible Belt states, Tennessee and Oklahoma, are central to Gingrich's hopes of revival. But Santorum insists he'll be the big story in both.

In Tennessee, a confident-sounding Santorum is trying to walk the footsteps of another outspoken Christian conservative, Mike Huckabee, who won this primary four years ago. Romney boasts the support of popular Gov. Bill Haslam, while Gingrich is getting plugs from one of the state's most colorful political figures, former senator, movie actor and Law & Order star Fred Thompson. At stake are 55 delegates.

Dotted with drilling rigs and cattle ranches, Oklahoma straddles the South and the Great Plains and sits squarely among the reddest of the red states. Santorum tagged it "ground zero of the conservative movement," and his anti-abortion, pro-family values message attracts enthusiastic crowds here. The other three hopefuls also have dropped in, hoping to prove their conservative bona fides to the Okies. It offers 40 delegates.

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Paul's big night?

The anti-war, libertarian-leaning, unorthodox Republican hasn't won a single state. Super Tuesday could change that.

Paul is focusing on the three caucus states — Idaho, North Dakota and Alaska — where a big turnout by his cadre of enthusiastic followers would have the most impact. Even if he doesn't score a win, he's likely to pick up delegates to help power him into this summer's Republican convention with enough clout to promote his ideas.

But his rivals won't make it easy.

Idaho's big Mormon population — about a fourth of its voters — bodes well for Romney, who's a Mormon. Santorum's looking to win in North Dakota, and Romney's trying, too.

Paul, a Texas congressman, may be the only one to journey to Alaska, however; he was in the state Sunday. Meanwhile, Alaska's most famous Republican, Sarah Palin, has been saying some nice things about Gingrich.

Together, the three caucuses pay out 84 delegates (Idaho 32, North Dakota 28, Alaska 24).

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What's the deal with Virginia?

Gingrich would love to compete in this Southern state, but he's not. Only Romney and Paul landed spots on the ballot, by having early organizations strong enough to collect the required 10,000 signatures. That leaves Virginia mostly a curiosity. What kind of showing can Paul muster going mano-a-mano with Romney? The fight is over 46 delegates.

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Romney territory:

There's little drama in the Northeastern races. Romney's virtually unopposed in his power base of Massachusetts, where he was governor just over five years ago. Delegates: 38. He's expected to win neighboring Vermont handily, too, although Santorum seeks to peel away some of its 17 delegates.

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Next up:

Caucuses and primaries in Kansas, Wyoming, Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana fill out the busiest month of the nomination season. Three territories — American Samoa, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico — also get their say in March.

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Romney faces questions about intensity of support

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — If Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination for president, he'll face the urgent task of inspiring the party's conservative core and rallying them to beat President Barack Obama in the November election.

Judging by his performances in the primaries and caucuses so far, and the challenge he faces in the primaries next week, he's got his work cut out for him.

Even Republicans who think he'll be the nominee worry about whether he can generate the intensity required to beat the Democratic incumbent.

These party leaders and activists, from the states voting Feb. 28 and the most contested ones ahead in the fall, say Romney has made strides toward addressing this problem. But, they say, he needs to do more to convince the Republican base that he's running to fundamentally reverse the nation's course, not simply manage what they see as the federal government's mess.

"I think Romney will be the nominee, but there is still tremendous work to be done," said Sally Bradshaw, a Florida Republican and adviser to former Gov. Jeb Bush. "He has got to find a way to unify the party and increase the intensity of support for him among voters who have supported Newt Gingrich, or Rick Santorum or Ron Paul or someone else. And that is going to be the key to how he does in the fall."

Romney leads in the delegate count for the nomination, and by a wide margin in polling ahead of the Arizona primary on Feb. 28. But the rising challenge from former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in the contest also that day in Michigan, where Romney was born and raised but trails in the polls, underscores doubts about Romney's ability to ignite fervor in the Republican base.

He nearly tied Santorum in the leadoff Iowa caucuses in early January, although entrance polls showed that more of Santorum's backers than Romney's said they were strongly behind their chosen candidate.

Romney lost the primary in South Carolina last month to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. More of Romney's supporters in that state said they would support him with reservations in the general election than would support him enthusiastically.

Santorum swept caucuses Feb. 7 in Colorado and Minnesota, and the nonbinding Missouri primary.

Romney's challengers have risen by sounding more conservative and displaying sharper differences with Obama, while nipping Romney's appeal as the most electable against Obama.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor with a moderate past, has campaigned more as the likely Republican nominee, portraying himself as acceptable to swing voters in a race where polls show Republican voters prizing most a candidate's perceived ability to beat Obama.

Romney has pivoted toward the party's conservative base in light of Santorum's surge.

He dove into the debate over whether birth control ought to be covered by health insurance provided by church-backed employers by faulting the Obama administration's original push to do so as an "assault on religion." But Romney was accused of overreaching after recently telling an influential meeting of conservative activists, "I was a severely conservative Republican governor."

"In Romney's case it's like the difference between someone who grew up speaking Spanish and someone who went to school to speak Spanish," said Constantin Querard, an Arizona Republican operative. "The moment Romney starts speaking, people know the difference."

A Pew Research poll taken last week shows the number of Republican voters nationally who think Romney is a strong conservative has dipped to 42 percent from 53 percent in November.

Romney's campaign aides say it's unrealistic to think conservatives staring at the possibility of a second Obama term will not unify behind Romney. "President Obama is the best unifier the Republican Party could ever hope for," Romney's political director, Rich Beeson, told The Associated Press.

The campaign points to recent conservative opinion leaders who have signed on to his campaign, and his support from popular rising conservative figures such as South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as evidence of Romney's newfound buzz.

Michigan Republican Holly Hughes, who supported Arizona Sen. John McCain in the 2008 primary, said Romney is more passionate than during his failed bid that year.

"He's a different candidate than he was four years ago," said Hughes, a Republican national committeewoman from Muskegon County. "There wasn't the excitement there."

Hughes and others also point to Romney's winning the straw poll at the recent Conservative Political Action Convention in Washington, which attracted thousands of the nation's most ardent conservative activists.

Yet Michigan Republican consultant Tom Shields said Santorum, now ahead of Romney in polls in Romney's native state and where his father served as governor, is exciting people where Romney isn't.

Establishment Republican figures are lining up behind Romney in Michigan, including Gov. Rick Snyder. But in 2000, Gov. John Engler promised to deliver the state as George W. Bush's firewall; McCain won the primary that year.

"For whatever reason, Romney's not objectionable. But people just haven't fully warmed up to him," said Shields, who conducts public opinion polling in Michigan. "They've just refused to take the next step and marry the guy."

It foretells problems assuring the die-hard Republican activists will be lining up in November, when their phone-banking and door-knocking could make the difference in a close election against an Obama re-election campaign projected to have $1 billion to spend.

"I voted for him. I don't want to screw around because he's who we're going to end up with," said former Arizona Republican Chairman Mike Hellon, referring to his absentee primary vote for Romney. "But I talk to people who are generally reluctant to pull the trigger for him. More than anything else, that's' a problem of intensity which could be a problem in the fall."

Romney could spice things up with his running-mate choice, although some say an August announcement might be too late to lock in the Republican foot-soldiers.

"There's a lot of speculation that Marco Rubio could be the vice presidential nominee," Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad told the AP, referring to the freshman Cuban-American Florida senator and favorite of the small government, anti-tax tea party movement. "I think somebody like him could add some real excitement to the ticket, would be kind of a help to Romney if he does wrap up the nomination."

Candidates historically do not win close elections based on their running mate, although they have in recent elections received a temporary bump in their national poll standing. The choice can ignite passion among the party base, as did McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in 2008.

Concerns about the enthusiasm Romney generates correspond with a general dip in excitement among Republicans in a nominating campaign that has lurched one way and another in nine state contests over the past six weeks.

A CNN/ORC International poll published Wednesday showed 51 percent of Republicans nationally were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president in the election, down from 64 percent in October.

But the dip in Republican enthusiasm, and especially Romney's three-state loss this month, is a stark warning to Romney that he cannot wait or rely on public discontent with Obama to provide momentum for him.

"He cannot bank on the anger against Obama among Republicans to create the turnout we need in the Fall," Florida's Bradshaw said.

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